COVID-19 weekly monitoring report


Current COVID-19 Figures

East Sussex weekly COVID-19 update

Week up to 29 July 2021

The  COVID-19 Weekly Update collates published national data to describe COVID-19 cases in East Sussex, how they change over time, and how this compares to other areas.

This report covers East Sussex and the District and Borough areas.

Confirmed cases

Weekly rates in East Sussex have increased from 241 to 313 cases per 100,000 and actual case numbers have increased from 1,345 to 1,744 in the most recent week of data.

Figure 1 shows cases since the start of the pandemic. The first wave during springtime 2020 when universal testing was not available appears dwarfed by the subsequent wave experienced over the winter months when everyone with symptoms was able to be tested. When looking at that winter peak it is helpful to note that the data does not show a smooth upwards trajectory. There are several points at which we could have assumed that rates were declining only to then suffer a sharp and unexpected increase. The more recent third wave currently shows a declining weekly rate.

It is possible that routine testing has become less routine following the break-up for school holidays. We know that there are many people who catch COVID but have no or few symptoms. The only way to capture this data is with a reported positive result otherwise that data is lost. More importantly these people will not be in isolation and may pass on the infection to others who are more likely to suffer serious symptoms. The decline in positive cases may represent an actual drop or could be due to lower levels of reporting.

Figure 1 East Sussex Daily Confirmed Cases By Date
Figure 1

Figure 1 - Daily confirmed cases by the date the test was taken up to 28 July 2021 (figures in grey still subject to change). The line represents the 7-day rolling average.

Source: Cases in East Sussex | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)


Figure 2a and 2b help to show trends in the population. There is little difference in the male to female ratio of cases. There is an enormous difference in the age range. Figure 2b shows that for young people between 15 and 24 the weekly rates experienced during  winter period are very similar to the current period. This reflects the take up of the vaccine which was targeted to older age groups and/or those with specific conditions. Younger people are the last group to be fully vaccinated.

Figure 2 - East Sussex confirmed cases by age and sex - in the last 14 days 14 days up to 22 July

Figure 2 East Sussex Confirmed Cases By Age And Sex
Figure 2

Figure 2b - The 7-day rolling average cases per 100,000 of all confirmed cases up to 22 July 2021 by age band for children and young people in East Sussex.

The 7-day rolling average cases per 100,000 of all confirmed cases up to 22 July 2021 by age band for children and young people in East Sussex.

Source: Cases in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)


How East Sussex compares

Table 1 shows how East Sussex and District and Borough areas compare against each other and against the South East and England.

Across England, the South East and East Sussex the number of cases and weekly rates per 100,000 have reduced – for England from 473 to 448, for the South East from 369 to 372 and for East Sussex from 313 to 301 per 100,000.

Actual case numbers in East Sussex have decreased from 1,744 to 1,677. All Upper Tier and Lower Tier Authorities are ranked with 1 being the Authority with the highest weekly rate of confirmed cases. East Sussex has dropped further down the rankings despite only a small reduction in the weekly rate. This means that weekly rates in other Local Authorities are either increasing or reducing more slowly.

Table 1 - Confirmed cases between 15 July and 22 July 2021, as at 28 July 2021
Region Cases Rate per 100,000 LA rank * % change from previous week
England 251,968 448 NA -6%
South East 34,165 372.2 NA -3%
East Sussex 1677 301 140/149 -4%
Eastbourne 324 312 267/315 -17%
Hastings 315 340 245/315 17%
Lewes 281 272 295/315 -22%
Rother 264 275 292/315 -2%
Wealden 493 305 272/315 8%

*There are 149 Upper Tier and 315 Lower Tier Authorities. 1 denotes the highest rate.
Source: Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

Figure 3a shows the rise of the third wave starting at the end of June. Hastings experienced a sharp rise starting at the end of June and by early July had superseded the England weekly rate. Lewes experienced a sharp rise at the beginning of July rising to meet the England rate within a week. Eastbourne had a slower rise but by mid July Eastbourne had the highest weekly rate of all District and Borough areas.

All District and Borough areas peaked during mid July although the weekly rate for England was well above the East Sussex and individual District and Borough rates at this point. Since mid July the weekly rates for all District and Borough areas have followed a pattern of decline in line with the weekly rate for England.

Figure 3b shows the longer period from the start of the pandemic to the current date. The second wave saw a continued upward trajectory with occasional drops and periods where rates appear to plateau. Over the winter period Hastings was the first to suffer a sharp rise followed by a smaller but noticeable rise in Lewes and eventually a sharp rise in Eastbourne. The third wave has followed a very similar pattern.

Figure 3a and 3b - The 7-day rolling average cases per 100,000 of all confirmed cases up to 26 July 2021 in East Sussex by lower tier local authority. The grey section shows incomplete data which is liable to change.

Fig 3A Zoom Of 7 Day Rolling Rates Per 100000 Population All Ages
Figure 3a (from April 2021)
Fig 3B 7 Day Rolling Rates Per 100000 Population All Ages
Figure 3b (from May 2021)

Figure 4 sets out the wider picture across England and Wales. Many areas remain with much higher rates shown by the darker blue, purple and darker purple patches.

Figure 4 - The 7-day rate of new confirmed cases per 100,000 people for 7–day period ending on 28 July 2021

Fig 4A Map Case Rate

Source: Interactive map of cases | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)


District and Borough confirmed cases

The scale for each chart is different, it is important to read the accompanying text for each District and Borough.

The charts contain published data (blue) and unpublished data (grey).  Unpublished data is incomplete, and more test results may be added, so this information should be viewed cautiously until it is complete.


Eastbourne Borough

Cases in Eastbourne have reduced from 388 to 324 new cases in the most recent week of data.

Figure 5 shows the longer-term look at cases since the start of the pandemic. Eastbourne had a higher number of cases during the first wave than other parts of the county. Early Autumn saw a rise in cases and a fall at the end of November. From the second week of December cases in Eastbourne increased at the steepest rate seen during the pandemic.

Figure 5 - Eastbourne confirmed cases by specimen date to 28 July 2021

Eastbourne District Cases

Source: Cases in Eastbourne | Coronavirus in the UK)

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Hastings Borough

Cases in Hastings have increased from 291 to 340 new cases in the most recent week of data.

Figure 6 shows the longer-term look at cases since the start of the pandemic. In the early months of the pandemic Hastings experienced the fewest cases in East Sussex and one of the lowest rates of total confirmed cases in the country. Through June to August there were only sporadic cases. From the middle of September cases increased with a rise and fall in November leading to an exponential rise throughout December. In contrast to the first wave Hastings was affected much more by this second wave.

Figure 6 - Hastings confirmed cases by specimen date to 28 July 2021. 

Hastings District Cases

Source: Cases in Hastings | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

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Lewes District

Cases in Lewes have reduced from 358 to 264 new cases in the most recent week of data. 

Figure 7 shows the longer-term look at cases since the start of the pandemic. Cases were low during the summer months with an increasing trend from the end of September and throughout October. A relatively stable rate of cases throughout November initially decreased before a dramatic increase throughout December which was followed by a peak in early January. Lewes experienced higher numbers than other areas of East Sussex during the first wave of the pandemic.

Figure 7 - Lewes confirmed cases by specimen date to 28 July 2021.

Lewes District Cases

Source: Cases in Lewes| Coronavirus in the UK)

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Rother District

Cases in Rother have slightly reduced from 269 to 264 new cases in the most recent week of data. 

Figure 8 shows the longer-term look at cases since the start of the pandemic. Rother experienced lower numbers of cases relative to most parts of East Sussex in wave one. Rother had low cases throughout June, July and August. Cases increased slightly throughout October with a greater increase in November. Numbers rose sharply in December, with two peaks either side of Christmas. 

Figure 8 - Rother confirmed cases by specimen date to 28 July 2021.

Rother District Cases
Figure 8

Source: Cases in Rother | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

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Wealden District

Cases in Wealden have increased from 459 to 493 new cases in the most recent week of data. 

Figure 9 shows the longer-term look at cases since the start of the pandemic. Wealden experienced a steady increase throughout October and November, before increasing much more sharply from the second week of December and continuing to increase with peaks either side of Christmas.

Figure 9 - Wealden confirmed cases by specimen date to 28 July 2021

Wealden District Cases

Source: Cases in Wealden | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

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